Nobody freakin’ knows!
But…you can vote too! The poll is at the bottom of this post and just for fun we’ve added the ReThuglicans too.
But here’sThe Great Orange Satan’s guess. Reprinted with attribution:
I’m pulling these numbers out of you know where, just like anyone else venturing predictions. This thing is so tight that anyone can win it. But bragging rights are important, so go for it — not just the order the top-three candidates will end up in, but the percentages they will get.
Update: Not rooting for any of these candidates, election day isn’t as exciting. Then again, I won’t have to relive the pain of Dean’s crushing defeat again. That’s a definite “plus” for maintaining a cool detachment.
And before anyone misinterprets, since it’s happened so much the past few days — this doesn’t mean I endorse or am rooting for Obama. I haven’t and am not. I’m not rooting for anyone. I’m letting nature take its course.
Furthermore, the rumors are flying rampant. For example, I just heard from a rival campaign that Hillary’s overnight internals are showing an Edwards, Hillary, and Obama 1-2-3 result. This is many people removed from the original source, so likely crap, but indicative of the frenzy for information in Iowa right now.
For what it’s worth, the media consensus (per my media sources in Iowa) appears in line with my predictions — Obama, Edwards, and Clinton.
What does Bowers say? You had to ask….
Five quick hits on Iowa:
- There are roughly as many troops in Iraq as there are Iowa caucus-goers
- Thank you from the Dodd campaign.
- BooMan on why it seems like so many bloggers are backing Edwards. I think he has it about right.
- The Democratic Party is Unity08. Not only do Iowa Independents prefer Democrats over Republicans by a 2-1 margin, but Democrats can’t stop talking about bi-partisanship.
- Heather Hopkins provides the traffic rankings for campaign websites in both Iowa and New Hampshire. First, here is Iowa:
- 3. Barack Obama
- 4. Hillary Clinton
- 5. Ron Paul
- 6. John Edwards
- 10. Mike Huckabee
- 24. Joe Biden
- 25. Fred Thompson
- 31. Mitt Romney
- 34. John McCain
And here are the New Hampshire rankings:
- 7. Barack Obama
- 10. Hillary Clinton
- 14. John McCain
- 15. Mike Huckabee
- 17. Ron Paul
- 20. John Edwards
- 38. Mitt Romney
- 49. Joe Biden
- 74. Fred Thompson
Wow–Romney’s collapse is severe. People just aren’t looking for him online. The total lack of buzz if a great sign for both Huckabee and McCain. Nationally, the situation is different:
And Jane? Damn, I hope she still isn’t hung up on shoes!
The Mellencamp concert for John Edwards last night was a huge success for the campaign. It was well attended (easily twice the size of the Huckabee “Huck’n’Chuck” rally the night before), the crowd was enthusiastic and responded to his message. The people he assembled on the stage represented the image he was trying to put forth — working class, labor, the people who have been forgotten and disenfranchised and disempowered. They’re pissed off and they respond to Edwards’ message that you can’t reach a “bipartisan agreement” with people who won’t pay for a liver transplant for a teenage girl for the sake of profit. You’re going to have to fight them.The whole thing was well stage-managed and the pieces were put in place for a consistent message. Elizabeth Edwards was great and Mellencamp really worked for them, but my problem was strangely — Edwards himself.
He’s better than I’ve ever seen him before and he connected with the crowd well, but the obvious comparison with Edwards was not Obama or Clinton but the populist Huckabee, who had been on that very stage the night before. Edwards doesn’t have Huckabee’s affability, his sense of humor, his ease in front of an audience. I like Edwards message, it appeals to me, but I got the sense that if I wasn’t already on his team I might not be persuaded by listening to him. Edwards speaks like a man who is convinced he’s right and will doggedly pursue his message whether people want to hear it or not. Which I respect. but Huckabee has a sense of himself as a man with a message that is right for the time, and all people need to do is hear it and they’ll think so too. The populist frame is not all that different, but one message is alienating, the other enfranchising.
Edwards could do it in Iowa. He seems to have channeled people’s economic frustrations (as opposed to amorphous frustrations with the political process) better than anyone. He’s got solid labor support and those people show up.
But if he goes forward, he needs some media training. I’m assuming he’s had plenty, but he needs someone else. Someone to lighten him up and shift his pitch to ride the wave on the left that Huckabee has surfed on the right.
I’m listening to Ron Paul speak right now to an enthusiastic audience. There’s a tremendous hunger for change in this state. The only question is — whose package are they buying?
Well, no shoe problem but not exactly what I wanted to hear about JRE. But she nails the real point: ‘…..whose package are they buying?’
Since I’m disappointed I could not go to IA that Matt, Jane and the rest are getting to have all the fun I created a poll so you can vote along with them oh so very knowledgeable Iowa caucus goers.
And here it is: Vote for your favorite Democratic Candidate in IA! Do it right here!
And for laughs, and most of these guys are truly laughable, here’s the: Rethuglicans!
In case you need more ‘help’ from the candidates to make up your mind here are some video clips from same. We have two sets: Clinton..Edwards…Obama from OrangeLand here…..
Vote and stay ready to help ‘Crush the Conservative Conspiracy!’
Obama took 1st with the help of a lot of new caucus goers. This is being applauded by the ‘sphere as a real good thing. Me? I ask how many of these folks, many younger folks , know this? Interesting set of ‘backers’ Senator ‘Change’ has….Goldman Sachs…Lehman Bros…..National Amusements Inc ….and some other very interesting members of corporatist America.