Check it out. It might change your view of a few things….
Yep, I was on the phone to India while getting ‘support’ for my installation of MS Small Business 2007 and you will never, never, believe how I finally got it ‘installed’.
Don’t forget to vote and don’t forget to stay tuned afterwards to track what is being done…
In your name.
The translation of this song, interestingly it’s about separation, is here.
…I was a smart allecked little sucka and would not hesitate to tell him when I thought he was wrong. Which he was upon occasion. One was the Vietnam War and event you younger whippersnappers will prolly never really understand. It’s like they say, ‘Ya had to be there!’ Not to say that you cannot sit down with some books ‘stead of yer Ipod and read about it. Learn about it. But, what the fuck nobody really gives a damn they are only concerned with today. Today’s gas prices. Today’s baseball scores. Today’s chances of getting laid. Yadda and yadda…. This attitude served our chimpy ancestors, yes pal you are related to Bonzo, very well indead. It mattered not what yer cousin’s complaints about the head chimp were as long as that dude kept the troop alive. Basically, stay away from leopards and close to bananas would work pretty good as policy.
Now my dad and I actually came to blows over ‘Nam. Briefly, no knockdowns no winners and after a while he was forced to admit that, ‘Yes, you were right son. ‘Nam is a fuckin’ disaster.’ except he never swore. Which brings me to today’s post. Some have said that I need to STFU! about certain issues. Obama’s candidacy being one of them. The theory here being, as best I can follow it as it really makes no sense, it’s wrong to criticize The One as he is the ‘Democrat’ Party nominee and that anything brought up about him only helps the vile, heinous Senator John McCain. And further, Obama would be a much, much better President than McCain. I got myself in big trouble, and expect to continue to do so, when I pointed out that: First, Obama has not been nominated you can look that up; Second, It’s not clear that Obama would be a better President see Douglas Kmiec…FISA flip-flop…drill for oil in flip flop….Presidential Seal stupidity jsut for starters; Third, and this is the one where the shit hits the fan, where folks want to start swinging, I contend that Senator Obama is a horrible campaigner and a truly third rate politician. Whoa, folks really get pissed when I assert this.
Well, all you Obamacans out there what is the reality today pals? This is the reality:
John McCain is now trusted more than Barack Obama on nine out of 14 electoral issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports. The latest national telephone surveys find that McCain has the biggest advantage on the war in Iraq, by a 51% to 39% margin.
From the Rasmussen Report folks and it gets worse for the esteemed Senator:
Perhaps the most interesting finding of these polls is that McCain has expanded his leads on nearly every issue he had previously had the advantage on, while Obama’s leads have diminished over the past two weeks…
In the new survey, McCain has tripled his lead on the topic of immigration. He now has a 45% to 36% advantage over his Democratic opponent…
The Republican also has pulled ahead on the issue of balancing the federal budget. Two weeks ago, the candidates were tied on this issue at 40%. McCain now has a 43% to 40% lead on the issue among voters.
McCain used to be behind on the issue of Social Security but has pulled ahead of Obama for a 44% to 38% lead…
On national security, an issue that McCain consistently performs well on, the Republican leads 52% to 40%.
This mirrors what I have been asserting about Obama for over a year and a half. Assertions which have me banned from OpenLeft, Corrente, TalkLeft and Crooks and Liars. Now it may very well be that Obama will engineer a comeback and beat McCain but, another question no one wants to answer:
‘How the hell can the Democratic Party nominate a candidate for President of the United States in one of the most critical periods of our history who is struggling to compete with, not beat, compete with a Republican nominee who, given his and his predecessor’s track record, should not be able to be elected dog-catcher?
Come on guys! Come on Kos…Bowere….Marshall….Armando…Marsh…..
Explain that one to me pals. Oh great and mighty seers of the Awesome Blogosphere. Bah! None of these AssClowns can find their butts with either hand when it comes to what they are suppose to be so damn good at, political analysis. Sadly, many of the netizens and Democrat rank and file have bought off on this fantasy and worse yet consider anyone such as myself a heinous asshole for pointing out that yes, ‘The Emperor has no Clothes’ and I’m talkin’ about Obama.
The reason Obama is where he is is a topic for another day. Until then remember A.Citizen’s ironclad guarantee to you and every other citizen of this still great nation which is:
‘I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it’
Yeah, I stole it from Voltaire. Or so you think just another example of how things we ‘know’…well, we really don’t. One of my goals is to get folks to understand why that quote is so important. Sadly, the chimp brain is not wired to understand this meme.
That’s why they made Socrates guzzle some hemlock. Not too worry. I ain’t guzzling’ no hemlock. No. Matter. What.
Here’s the lead in paragraph:
‘This is the Achilles heel of the blogosphere, not so much being bought out as being seduced, having your ego stroked, being invited inside the magic circle where the sheer force of your intellect and the brilliance of your insight will get the big talking heads on TV or the columnists and editors from the Big Papers to frown, deep in thought, and then grudgingly admit that you are right, by golly. See, see, look, I’m having an impact on the MSM! Look how important I am! Look how powerful I am!’
Indeed, I have personally witnessed this. Bloggers I know, both local and national, are under the delusion that the MSM now wants their input. Bloggers I know, both local and national, have in my opinion and from the threads and their behavior been paid by Obama’s campaign. The ‘blogging’ phenomena started as a citizen’s based movement to provide a forum for open and free discussion. This it no longer is. I have been booted off several sites, not because I talked about slitting Hillary’s throat or lynching Obama which comments abound today on many A-List sites or should I say O-List sites, and I might be booted off several more. Doesn’t matter as I made clear to Kid Oakland yesterday if he had a problem with what I was saying on his thread then come out in the open and debate the issues I raised. Threats, made off thread, promising to boot me from the thread if I did not change my approach or tone, in other words ‘Shut Up!’ are the order of the day from folks like him Bowers, Kos and Marshall. These guys have gotten such an inflated ego now, ala Barry, that anyone who disagrees with them is due for the chop.
Well as I posted in: ‘Censorship, The Committee of Three and a Warning from the Past.’ I’ve seen this before and it gets worse folks. Your progressive blogosphere is going totalitarian. With oodles of cash sloshing thought it courtesy of Mr. ‘Yes we can!’ an outbreak of egomania we are ripe for the ‘Big Disillusionment’ which will come as the millions of new users of the ‘sphere find that the only difference between Kos, Marshall, Bowers and KO is that they make a lot less money than Tweety and PumpkinHaid. The ‘sphere remains a very big place and is still self-policing. dKos’ reach and traffic fell off the cliff last month. That site still has a long way to fall but I believe it is going away. The utility of it is gone. If you don’t agree with the mob there they will lynch you and that, in the long run, hardly makes the place appealing to visitors new or old.
I will be looking for more sites like Anglachel’s Journal or The Confluence where new voices may be heard.. In the long run Darwin’s evolutionary meme will winnow the field. Whether we are left with a few packs of howler monkeys or move on to a truly civilized ‘sphere depends on whether Robert Wright was correct in his seminal book: Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny. I think he is and will continue to blog as if that is true. I think that when historians look back upon this summer they will be writing about how once again the Left revealed itself just as intolerant and tending to the Fascist in the mass as the Right has always been in it’s internal politics. 1968 is repeating itself in a lot of disturbing ways one of the most being the ‘Progressive’ movements thirst for conservative blood blinding it’s leaders to the fact that they, in reality, have no real agenda apart from, ‘Get the Republicans’.
It will be fascinating to see how this plays in the GE.
My prediction is that, ‘Git ’em, get them dang ReThugs.’ isn’t going to be as successful as Miss Nancy and her pal Senator SnakeOil think it is. But then, what do I know?
Flash Alert: Today is a big day in the Dem Primary cage-match-from-hell, by the way I want to thank Howard Dean for fucking this up so gotdamn much, and you should tune in to The Confluence, FDL and Anglachel’s Journal. If you want some Obaman input MyDD is still okay although I would not let the kids read the threads. They are not good example of how to ‘make nice’. Have a good weekend and remember what the Yogi said, Berra that is, ‘It ain’t over ’til it’s over.’
Flash Alert II: Looks like MyDD may be liveblogging, with a video link, the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee where, if you are not tuned in, the primary battle may be decided by the committee’s ruling on the status of delegates from FL and MI.
Here’s Krugman’s quote in Anglachel’s Journal:
‘…the nightmare Mr. Obama and his supporters should fear is that in an election year in which everything favors the Democrats, he will nonetheless manage to lose.’
But I’m not linking to The Shrill One today, much as I admire his skills as a thinker and writer…shut UP! Bowers…stuff a cork in in Kos…you guys are wet-behind-the-ears bozos in clown shoes compared to Paul, not it’s Anglachel I want you to read. Clik on this para to go there:
‘I’ve been taking time out from the blogosphere the last few days to attend to ordinary things, like replacing my printer and doing some spring cleaning, and I come back to find out I’m really not one of the Important Bloggers of Left Blogistan. It seems that bloggers who are Important have been contacted by People Who Know and have been seriously informed that It Is Over and just accept that Obama will be the nominee. The Important people are now telling us peons to get on the Unity Bus before it leaves the station (I guess the Unity Pony is a bit spavined by now) and we are Left Behind. BTD has even announced that he will despise us if we don’t all get on board.’
BTD, that’s Big Tent Democrat is an idiot…he was an idiot when Kos threw him out of dKos back when he was called Armando…and he still is an idiot, is of the ‘BoneHead’ Bowers wing of Blogistan. Those are the folks who are just like so totally sure that Barry is gonna lead us to the promised land of a Dem White House.
Sure pals…And I am Queen of the May!
But guess what?
It’s not. People, that’s people who say they are ‘progressive’ or liberal, have been expressing the most ignorant ideas about what’s going on in this Dem Primary. Sorry about that word ‘ignorant’ but hey…the show fits…wear it.
Here with commentary by me is eriposte to…well…
Tell a story.
You do like a story don’t you?
It’s Ain’t Over Yet
Having been rather busy last week, I’m a bit behind on blogging. I thought the best way to catch up and comment on the state of the race is to respond to Steve’s question on why Sen. Clinton would stay in the race despite facing significant debt ($). West Virginia aside, I can think of so many reasons. Here are a few, not necessarily in order.
Political: Sen. Clinton appears to be staying in the race because she really believes she has a much better chance of delivering the White House to Democrats in November than Sen. Obama. I have seen a lot of discussion in the blogosphere about who has a better chance of winning against Sen. McCain and obviously supporters of Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton both have strong views about their respective candidates’ electability. My view has been unchanged since December. I strongly believe Sen. Clinton has a much better chance of beating her Republican opponent – esp. Sen. McCain – than Sen. Obama, once the GOP and media attacks begin. The events of the last couple of months have only solidified my view. More importantly, neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to cross the delegate threshold (more on this below), there is just a slight difference between Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama on the popular vote and she’s still got a shot at coming out ahead on this metric when all the races are over (see Jay Cost’s spreadsheet where Sen. Clinton just beat his popular vote estimate for WV, and Cost’s article from last week "Not Quite Yet"). Moreover, according to the rules of the primary, the role of superdelegates is to exercise independent judgment, and given the other not so minor detail that Sen. Obama has not won yet, there is absolutely no reason for her to quit now. The fact that her chances of winning are low doesn’t mean her chances of winning are zero. When you are this close on the popular vote and creaming your opponent by over 40% after he has been crowned the nominee (by the media and big chunks of the blogosphere) then you have every reason to stay in the race. [Fun fact: Nebraska – discussed later in this post]. (I wonder how those who are insisting that Hillary has no chance would talk if this was the GE and McSame was in the lead…Oh, yeah…we did that already in 2000…what is the difference…Obama’s more charming than Bush…maybe….Obama’s black….Hmmmm that might be it….Obama’s backers…do you know who they are? don’t want to lose their ‘investment’…Bingo..get a cupie doll, pal)
Don’t Let The Media Define the Rules of Elections: One of the fundamental values I have sought to see in Democrats is that they not quit before the votes are counted and certainly not quit because the media asks them to quit. I was appalled at what happened in 2000 when Vice President Gore was hounded in the media and declared a "sore loser" even before a Florida recount. I was very disappointed in 2004 when Sen. Kerry gave up quickly without a proper recount in Ohio, ostensibly because he didn’t want to be branded a "sore loser". I am sick and tired of Democrats who refuse to stand up for democracy (who would rather sit on their hands and do exactly nothing an then complain about the outcome incessantly..yeah..me also on that) and who are more concerned about what elitist jokers like Tim Russert, David Broder, Frank Rich or (fill in the blanks) think of them than they care about the Democratic party’s ideals – one of which is making sure as many people can vote and another being that every vote should be counted. So, if Sen. Clinton can afford to campaign till June 3rd and she and her supporters continue to fund her campaign (I certainly will), I would consider myself indebted to her if she does exactly that and demonstrates that the era of the media ordering candidates around is effectively over. I want a Fighting Democrat as President and as good as Sen. Obama may be as a candidate, there’s only one Fighting Democrat left in this race and that’s Sen. Hillary Clinton (also see here). As Emily’s List President Ellen Malcolm said recently in her op-ed focusing on the calls for Sen. Clinton to quit – "winners never quit and…quitters never win". In fact, there is simply no other American candidate in modern history that I’m aware of who withstood absolutely unprecedented and sustained levels of hostility in the media and blogosphere, was outspent by huge margins in state after state (even WV), was insulted and demeaned in the worst manner possible – sometimes by alleged progressives, and yet, stayed resolute and focused and revealed the true fighter that she is. Her blowout victory in West Virginia where she amassed an impressive popular vote gain under record turnout follows a series of victories in big states despite calls for her to drop out – this is particularly noteworthy coming as it did after the morale-depressing commentary in the media last week about how the race was over. [Big bonus for Democrats if Sen. Clinton becomes the nominee: She is building a massive base of Democratic voters who don’t trust the media to tell the truth about Democrats (like her) and who have deep contempt for the gasbags in the media. (Gee….what have I been listening to for fukin’ months but ‘The Media….the media….they always kill ‘us’ Democrats….Guess The Hill did not get the memo. To damn bad a lot of the folks I know don’t get this.) This is a dream come true for me because building voter skepticism about the media has been one of the principal failings of the Democratic party for a long time and she’s almost single-handedly accomplishing what to me should be one of the holy grails of Democratic and progressive politics, i.e., making voters realize that the media is elitist and often dishonest in how it transmits false, often Republican (and increasingly fake "progressive") talking points about Democrats. Another holy grail that she’s on the right side of – she has been long been firmly in support of funding alternative progressive institutions and groups outside the Democratic party apparatus that are critical to ensuring the long term success of the progressive movement; contrast that with Sen. Obama’s inclinations.]
Universal Healthcare: Yet another reason why she should not drop out has to do with one of the biggest issues facing the country – something that affects the poor and working class of all races and backgrounds – universal healthcare. As I have said before, Sen. Clinton represents the only remaining opportunity to really get universal healthcare passed in the next 4 years. Granted, the chances of her getting it passed are less than 50% but those odds are much better than the odds that truly universal healthcare will get passed by an Obama administration (0%). To me, this alone is an important enough reason for her to stay in the race to be the Democratic nominee, especially given the other considerations above. (Oh hell, nobody is concerned about that….Let’s sing a few verses of Kumbaya! The Magic Man will fix things…..ya just gotta believe….in his for-profit-health-care-solution)
History and Change: Having the first female President in the United States – especially someone with her impressive experience, knowledge, courage and resilience – would be an enormous positive change for the country and path-breaking for roughly half of the American population – women.
Florida and Michigan: It would be disastrous for the Democratic party to disenfranchise Michigan and Florida. Moreover, as Obama supporter Chris Bowers noted last month in his post "No Objective Delegate Math", the magic delegate number is 2208, not 2025. Since revote primaries in FL and MI were not supported by the Obama campaign, we have no choice but to use the results of the previous elections to decide how MI/FL votes/delegates get allocated. Big Tent Democrat has more on this. The DNC Rules Committee very much has the right to seat these delegates according to the rules of this primary and until they make their final decision on this (and we can be sure that the egregious Donna Brazile will try to not significantly undo what she did), any declarations of victory would be no different than prematurely declaring Mission Accomplished. (Even ‘BoneHead’ Bowers finally got this. You wanna beat McSame you do not run the guy who told MI and FL to fuck off! Simple really…apparently too damn simple for some)
Let me stop there and let readers provide more of their own reasons, but a brief note on Sen. Clinton’s win in West Virginia – a 41% victory margin and a nearly 150,000 popular vote gain (which would have likely been even higher if Sen. Edwards had not been on the ballot and which erased roughly 70% of Sen. Obama’s popular vote gain last week). It has been downright depressing to see some people stereotype lower income working class whites as racists and distort Sen. Clinton’s argument about working class voters, when the fact remains that both Al Gore and John Kerry lost white working class voters by huge margins (and lost WV) not because of racism. (Yep, the only reason there is to be against Barry the Precious One is….yer a fukin’ Racist White Scumbag. Funny how the ‘Democat’ Party never realizes that some folks are just that and gets who those folks are. That’s why they are all inside the tent pissing on each other instead of pissing out on the folks OUTSIDE the tent.)
Let’s close with some observations on Nebraska. Nebraska held a primary yesterday not just for the Republican party but also for the Democratic party – the latter being irrelevant when it comes to delegates but important to assess the impact of caucuses v. primaries. When Nebraska held its Democratic caucus on Super Tuesday (Feb), the turnout was around 38760 and Sen. Obama won the caucus 68%-32%, giving him a popular vote margin of almost 14000 votes. Yesterday, the primary attracted 93161 voters and the result was 49-47% in favor of Sen. Obama, with Mike Gravel taking up the remaining 4%. In other words, a 36-point caucus victory was reduced to a 2-point primary victory for Sen. Obama along with a much lower popular vote margin of just ~2600 votes. This lends further credence to the points I have made previously. Taking no credit away from Sen. Obama for his caucus victories, the fact remains that his large victory margins in caucuses are clearly inflated significantly by the lower turnouts in the caucuses and may not be representative of any unique advantages for him in the general election. This is consistent with previous trends and is important to note because it cuts against the conventional wisdom about the significance of those caucus victories. As Anglachel observed yesterday:
OK, I can see a loss in a state where demographics favor your opponent, but 41%? Of the front-running presumptive nominee? Who outspent Hillary 2-to-1 and has the entire MSM lined up singing his praises?
In contest after contest, we see him failing to turn out the massive numbers that his allegedly unstoppable movement says they command. We see dominance in highly restrictive caucuses. We see him turning out super-majorities of AA voters. We see him dominating urban areas where you have upper income liberals. We see the college aged children of those liberal families voting in university areas.
What we aren’t seeing is any new coalitions for the Democratic Party coming out of his organizing. We aren’t seeing his share of the electorate increase. If anything, it is declining, given his defeats in OH, TX, PA, IN and WV, and what looks like a royal shellacking in the works in KY….In a Nebraska primary held today, which was like Washington State’s with no delegates awarded, he’s barely 2 points ahead. This was a caucus state that went for him 60/40 [Eriposte note: actually 68-32]. Hmm, maybe he didn’t have all that much support there? Maybe he won big there because the voters didn’t turn out?
It is beginning to look like the main reason for Obama’s red state caucus successes is the absence of voters, not the presence of new ones.(Res Ipsa Loquitor folks. Those hordes of Obama supporters who are gonna ride to his rescue in them there RedStates…They….wait for it….DON’T EXIST. This is not the only evidence of that fact. Take it from me or DON’T I don’t give a fuck; polling and analysis show Clinton is bringing in more new voters AND WHY THE FUCK NOT. SHE’S TALKING POCKETBOOK ISSUES TO THE VOTERS. What’s Obama’s message been lately? What? Can’t answer the question? What does that tell you?)
Without a doubt, Sen. Obama has a strong and deep following within the traditional Democratic base, but the evidence that he is building a new and broad coalition is much less compelling when we analyze the demographics of the recent races and deflate the results of the caucuses by acknowledging the reality of turnouts. It is also clear that ever since being declared as the likely nominee who has the nomination pretty much sewn up, he has been repeatedly underperforming the scenarios from his own campaign at least since April – in PA, IN, Guam and now WV (NC was the only exception). That says something about the state of this race and what it means for the Fall.
P.S. Andrewwalker08 has more on the Nebraska results and what they mean in the context of the DNC’s stated principles – here.
(So my good friends and colleagues remember. A vote for Barry is really a vote for McSame! IF you find yourself going, ‘No’, ‘No’, ‘NO’ about any of the points made here by eripost I’d think twice before I tried to cross the road. I love a good story….don’t you?)
And why should it not. If they need more money….
….in this office….
…they will just call downstairs and have more printed. And if you don’t think lots of cocaine, high-dollar hookers, booze, private jets and yachts don’t figure into this…
…yer just plain naive.
Have fun spendin’ that $30.00 worth of gas tax savings you are maybe gonna get.